I agree Trump doesn't stand a chance in this election, but for different reasons. On votes cast and electoral votes won Trump will highly likely win as he did in 2020, but lose on votes counted. The grift is already obvious. Crucial swing states announcing their counts will take many days. Massive mail out of voting papers and unmonitored drop boxes still in order in most states. etc etc.
The Trump lawfare and then assassination attempt clearly indicate that globohomo is going all out on this one. And most of all they want another J6, a redneck rebellion. And what better way to get it than to perpetrate a really outrageously blatant election rig - a landslide for Kamala, probably the most unpopular person ever to run, and likely to make a poor impression in the debates.
There are some good points in this article, but it is completely bizarre in that it ignores the two biggest factors -- the election rigging - and how far globohomo will be prepared to go. Basically it reads like something one would find in Politico or the NYT - makes one want to puke. (Oh, and the article takes the US election polling seriously - for gods sake who do you think owns the pollsters-- do you also take Big Pharma's drug trial reported results seriously?)
I'm not sure I agree with the 'key' analysis. Biden giving to rust-belt states is not a message anyone has either heard or feels. Has the author been to any rust-belt cities? I live there. There's no re-invigoration. What I would have preferred is an analysis of what they have done to perfect the steal, the grift and the (lack of) republican support, the weird strategy of Trump advisors and whether or not he thinks Trump has been purchased/infiltrated... gasp....or not.
my thoughts exactly. OP's downfall, just like the pollsters, is relying too heavily on numbers, statistics, maps, etc to make conclusions - without any real experience "on the ground".
it was bad before, but it's like... REALLY bad now. i don't care what the numbers show or what these journos say - i've witnessed easily a dozen of my neighbors go through evictions and foreclosures. my entire street is essentially all new faces, and none of them are white. how are THESE people affording to live where the whites previously could not? that's anyone's guess, but it's pretty clear there's a lot of social handouts going on for them, but not for us.
The OP is one of those DC capitol political analysis who’s struggling to land himself a job and he blames the MAGA folks who he fails to compete against because he’s not one of them
> I agree Trump doesn't stand a chance in this election, but for different reasons. On votes cast and electoral votes won Trump will highly likely win as he did in 2020, but lose on votes counted.
It'll be harder to get away with that much fraud without Big Tech backing them up. However, they may try anyway.
I agree with both of you on the rigging. But the rigging needs to be SOLD IN. It couldn't be sold in under Biden this time around. It would have been ludicrous and extremely dangerous for the deep state to attempt it with such a flawed candidate. They can sell it in now very easily with Kamala.
Keith's analysis is important because Trump efforts to triangulate into a centre ground versus Kamala are doomed to fail and only strengthen the concocted media narrative around her. He must energise his actual base - Whites - and attack her on immigration, Leftism, woke and the nation basically falling apart. He has to undermine the Deep State narrative that she is the natural, progressive, safe pair of hands choice. He needs to make her the perverse, dangerous choice. Going on about bloody gas prices and inflation isn't going to do that job.
Good post. All globohomo has to do is keep the election close — voter fraud, especially ballot harvesting, will take it the rest of the way (although it seems you consciously avoided that aspect of the analysis). The arrogance of some on the right that Trump is “definitely” going to win is misguided and a bad sign. I actually like to use extreme emotions on any side as a counter-signal; everyone was sure Hillary would win in 2016, Dementia Joe was deeply unpopular in 2020, etc.
This should be a wake-up call for the Narcissistic Orange Clown...
💯% same here! If he banned legal and illegal immigration while telling the Israelis to fuck themselves, and decided to become a dictator, everyone would welcome it with open arms.
It appears that he is poised to make the same stupid mistake by chasing black votes again. How difficult would it be for him to do a get out the vote effort for poor and working class Whites? How stupid to leave all of those votes on the table yet again.
I had hoped that with Kushner supposedly out of the picture that Trump would be smart enough to run a campaign that recognized who its base was and then targeted those people to come out and vote. Maybe it wasn't just Kushner that was the problem in 2020?
Well, if he goes down in flames again because he ignored White poor and working class people, then I hope he spends the rest of his life raging that he lost to an idiot like Kamala Harris. 🙄
BTW, your comments about his speech were also dead-on. I lasted about 15 minutes and I had to turn it off. Nobody gives a crap about "unity," least of all the Democrats.
When did Trump ever have the backs of the White working class? He lost over 200,000 manufacturing jobs during his presidency (while Biden has created 800,000 manufacturing jobs), all while handing tax cuts to the rich. Maybe you've confused him with the character he plays on stage? Eating fast food and being barely able to read may endear him to many working class Whites but the guy is an east coast elite born into riches. He spent his entire adult life stiffing contractors and pissing on the little guy.
Literal bullshit. Americans have lost 2 million jobs since 2021, while immigrants have gained 1.2 million. Youre so deep in the koolaid bro look at the real data
The Trump campaign team targets all sorts of poor white votes. They even try to get the Amish and church going people and gun show going people to get out to vote. Seriously you should get involved in Trump Force 47 before you make that comment. Yes, Trump is making more appeal to black and Hispanic recently, but that doesn’t mean his campaign ignores the poor white working class
"Trump will likely lose the debates with Harris. Although he had some great moments against Hillary, polling on undecided voters showed they thought he lost every exchange. Harris performed reasonably well against Mike Pence in 2020, and Trump is not the man he was in 2016 or even 2020."
Harris is a walking disaster in front of a camera.
I think there will be a media blitz to say she did well in the debates (as they did with Biden) but she has an extremely unlikable personality to a sizeable segment of the voter base, which has been her Achilles heel and why she couldn't get a nomination in an open primary.
Good article, except Vance is most definitely not "thematically pro-White" on account of his Indian wife. But I agree with everything else, Trump needs to reach out to the disaffected Whites who elected him in 2016, but modern conservatives who buy into every single leftist premise are delusional enough to believe that they can win the votes of "Jamal and Enrique" (Susie Wiles, Trump's campaign manager said this) even though these demographics have historically voted 85% Democrat at each election, and that was with the Democrats nominating mostly-White men, now that a black woman is the nominee it may well be 95%, and a decisive victory amongst the TikTok-addled vote (young white women) can also be assured on this basis also.
I don't know why everyone is overlooking the fact that Vance has a dothead Indian wife. He has skin in the game with that group. I remember Trump calling out Jeb Bush back in 2016 that he was weak on immigration because his wife was a Mexican. Yeah Vance is our guy with a son named Vivek lol
Donny needs to go ALL IN, balls deep, sunk to the nuts on the White vote. There are SO many disenfranchised Whites in this country that would welcome with open arms a true pro-White version of Trump. He’s so pathetically hellbent on courting the nog/mekky vote that he’s completely lost sight of the goldmine right under his nose. Trump must shut up about Israel for the time till the election and focus 100% on f’n WHITES!
He forgot about the very people, who would back him up no matter what he did. He's a pathetic neutered and cucked shabbo's goy. Yeah let's go hard on "illegal immigration" but open the flood gates to "legal immigration" from India/Asia. Just another way of continuing the Great Replacement.
The Republicans don’t want to win. For real. They do not want to win, even though the path to winning is right there.
The Democrats do want to win.
Look, this strategy has been available to Republicans for decades. Shutting down illegal immigration and seriously restricting legal immigration has been available to Republicans for decades.
The most Republicans have done is basically re-arrange chairs (tax cuts, regulatory changes, etc.).
I would add to seriously restricting legal immigration only from Europe. We don't need any more hostile non-White groups coming in and setting up shop politically and financially here.
Everyone talks about "illegal immigration," but the narrative should be centralized around immigration in general. The legal migrants are just as much, if not more, of a danger to society.
At least, at the BMV the guy will say, "You don't have a social security card, Pablo, I can't help you," and Pablo can't drive, legally.
But the person who came legally? They can most certainly get licensed and now you have millions of third world dirt road drivers on our roads who don't know what stop signs, right-of-way, four-way-stop, etc.. are for. American drivers are bad enough as it is, but we expect these people from deserts and jungles to respect road rules, if they even know them to begin with?
There will be a cascade of fatalities, and not from "migrant crime," but purely just roadway accidents. It's already happened, and is happening, and will get worse.
Thomas777 just posted on X that anyone discussing a Trump loss right now is an idiot being swept along by media narratives.
"This idea that WEEKS OUT from ELECTION DAY - after an unprecedented DISASTEROUS debate performance by an incumbent - 9 DAYS after TRUMP was LEADING solidly in WI and MI, while TRUMP racks up INDICATOR after INDICATOR and collects a bottomless war chest and SILICON VALLEY endorses him, KAMALA HARRIS - a total NOBODY with optics so shitty (even for BIDEN ADMIN) it became a running joke that she's a HOLOGRAM - is going to SWEEP THE EC it literally insane.
Some of you legit cannot BREAK with Legacy media ANTI-REALITY. What I described above? That is NOT HOW THINGS WORK. Is a ''STEAL'' possible? SURE. Self defeating, but ABSOLUTELY possible.
But what I DESCRIBED above? That's legit on ORDER of claiming BIDEN > FDR/REAGAN/OBAMA/KENNEDY/IKE. That's NOT reality. That's NOT how electoral politics works. "
Then he references "predictable indicators" which seem to be what this entire article is about.
"There's certain factors, RELIABLY codable variables, predictable modeling indicators to MODERN political behavior of the body politic. Its not ''VOODOO'' or some chance game.
People don't seem to understand (esp the population of which you speak) this REALITY."
T777 can say what he wants, and he may be correct on balance, but Keith is certainly not an idiot. He lays out a clear, actionable strategy. He knows that important elites are paying attention. This article is a part of what effective propaganda looks like. Don’t let your meat loaf. Don’t sleep on Harris.
Harris most definitely can win, but that speaks to the stupidity of the voting masses, not the quality of the candidate. Also, Keith has some borderline idiotic remakes in this article, especially in the keys to elections portion. His takes on the economy and scandals are objective false and write like a mother jones article.
The economy isn't great, but grocery prices are fairly flat relative to two years ago, and the supply chain shortages of covid lockdowns and other nonsense are long in the past. I'm sure it's different for lower-income Americans, but in the White middle-class it's basically business as usual. Inflation in the long run is a given due to our persistent spending; people will eventually just get used to current prices. If Biden manages to secure a last-minute gas price decrease or a number of other things, it could go a long way for improving perceptions of the economy. Remember that truck drivers and others most heavily affected by the current economy are already deep in the GOP camp; Harris appealing to the self-employed would be equivalent to Trump appealing to Blacks.
Yes, I disagree with keith’s count as well, especially with regards to the economic keys. I count it as 7-6 or 6-7. But that’s hardly the point. Smart people are shitting on Keith here, but he’s actually engaging in a real analysis of the thing.
From what I remember you're awful at predicting American politics. Look this election is going to be like the last two, 50/50 down the wire, won by 100,000 votes across 5 states. 2020 was barely lost and everything was stacked against the incumbent. The bigger problem then incompetence of the RNC is everyone in this comment section shitting their pants, the real trashy people of the right, who'd rather purity spiral and blackpill over doing the bare minimum like driving their friends to the polls.
What have they done to deserve even the bare minimum from the largest demographic in the country and therefore the most important one for winning in November? "Reducing immigration will be great for blacks and hispanics!" No one appreciates feeling invisible, and the 2024 election results will reflect that, as they did in 2020.
Again just purity spiraling like a hysterical bitch. If you think Trumps rhetoric on immigration isn't at all an improvement from the open border policy of the Biden or even his own policy during 2020 than you're fucking retarded. Any white man with their testicles still intact should have the instinct to do at least something other than complain online for fucks sake.
Is it purity spiraling to ask that some of their rhetoric explicitly appeal to the largest demographic in the country? They're terrified to say "white people" and you're complacent, happy to drive your friends to the polls. Whose testicles aren't intact?
It's purity spiraling when you're actively looking for reasons to do nothing. If you think having Trump in over Kamala isn't a positive for whites then you're very stupid.
You're missing the whole point. You'd rather sit on your ass and complain about Guatemalans filling up your neighborhood than actually do a single thing. You think you're so smart cherry picking what trump says? You're given the option of less or more immigration and you choose more. That's literally all I'm saying, I'm not saying he's our guy or voting is based or something.
Lmao at this guy, what a negger. "Daddy Trump and the RNC did nothing wrong, it's all you stupid lazy white trash peoples fault". Yeah bud, vote Republican, you fit right in
No dumbass. I was referring to what Keith said in the article, which you obviosly didn't read, about the Republican party being filled with trashy people. I said the real trash are the midwits like you.
The republican party is filled with trashy people though. The Grindr app literally broke from too many active users in one place at the RNC in Milwaukee. You keep talking about excuses to “do nothing.” What do you want people to do exactly? You want them to show up to “stop the steal” again? Who’s not voting? Everybody is voting.
It took me all of 30 seconds to see this is obvious propaganda. It's pathetic you people can't detach yourself from MSM anti-reality, no wonder you guys only start preemptively capitulating only when the MSM starts its Kamala blitz. I'll just ask what the fuck do you guys expect to do? Half of you want to wait for a Hitler to appear to come save you or wait for the collapse. Here's some news, HITLER WILL NEVER COME TO SAVE YOU AND IN HUNDRED YEARS THE UNITED STATES WILL STILL BE HERE. All you people do is fucking complain and I'm sick of it. Do something go homestead like me, start a fucking family, go to church. I encourage people to engage politically because it's the only logical way to get out agenda in part or whole implemented.
Read the first few paragraphs, skimmed the rest. Saw a bunch of charts and graphs and shit. Let me clue you in on the real election analysis: they fixed the last election, they'll fix the next one. End of discussion.
But keep pretending that it's real, I get how soothing that must be to believe.
Globohomo prefers to keep the fixing within a certain range -- if there's a blowout in favor of Trump it becomes difficult to hide the degree of election theft. Trump is nowhere near the margins he needs to be for that.
2020 shows that is false. Globohomo also doesn't necessarily control the fixing, as much of it was done at the local level by people brain-washed by the media into thinking Trump was literally Hitler. They'll print as many boxes as needed to make sure Cheeto Hitler doesn't win.
Nah, it was coordinated from on high although some low level drones conducted the actual stuffing. Globohomo had to pause vote counting for four hours in critical swing states to figure out how much rigging needed to be done, and the media provided cover. One can simply remember the "burst water pipe" as one example. This website catalogued the fraud: https://archive.ph/HKHPI
No one on high knows how to stuff a ballot box. They probably don't know how to work a self-checkout at the grocer, either.
"to figure out how much rigging needed to be done"
If the real elites were behind it, they would have already known how much fixing they needed to do. Things would have been organized long in advance, and wouldn't have been nearly the shit-show that it was. The only explanation for Biden even being the candidate is that the elites had made their peace with Trump winning, as they knew they could cockblock him in his second term at least as easily as they had the first.
Everyone seems to forget what happened in 2020. It's all charades and has always been that way. Even if the "elites" let Trump win, what makes anyone think he will do anything drastic and substantial? He's useless and has shown through his actions that he has never been our guy for years now.
I think most of us know this. But do you think the Deep State would have dared fix 2024 with a landslide for Dementia Joe? The reason he had to be got rid of was because he made selling that impossible.
Trump can't stop the rigging but he can make the Deep State afraid of attempting it if he can make Kamala look like an insane choice that would be an implausible victor. At the moment he's failing at that job. Keith is giving clues how to fix that.
im sure there was some rigging going on in 2020 but Trump had already lost a lot of his white voters by 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost legitimately but by a much closer margin than by how things ended up .
Keith you really need to check out shadow stats, all the official economic numbers are cooked here in the U.S. The economy is not doing well at all in the U.S. for ordinary people, wages are stagnant, and inflation is still very high by the real numbers. The cooked numbers throw out the cost of food and fuel, which is where the inflation is still very high by real numbers. Yes price of consumer electronics isn't inflating, is that news to anyone?
the idea that our economy is doing well, or even better than it was before, is laughable - and can only be said by someone living in an ivory tower themselves.
don't speak for the 'Rust Belt' if you don't live in it. things are VERY bad down here in the trenches, and on the ground. i'm seeing people losing jobs and homes, left and right, and even my own position isn't entirely secure. hanging on by a thread, barely.
Indeed, a wise move on your part, and I try to do the same. No need to own the newer stuff anyway. I don't use most of the features on my phone. I long ago stopped caring every time a new doodad was added.
I don't like this post. It reeks of pundit brain. You are an online entity after all so I don't know why I was expecting more going in...
Let's start with the keys, Mr. Ireland:
Key two: Biden did face a primary that was largely predetermined and put on the perephary. With the class based character of America and the Democratic party representing the managerial elites spirit and the globo-homo mass of minority consumers, a pre-ordained primary was offered as the illusion of choice. RFK ran independent due to it's rigged nature. You're also ignoring the fact that Joe Biden was quite LITERALLY replaced, dragged out kicking and screaming. He wasn't just challenged: He lost the nomination from the same elites that gave it to him, both back in 2020, and in 2024.
Key Four: There is a viable third party candidate, the likes we haven't seen since ross perot. RFK even polling like he is, that's a remarkable turn of events given modern politics. The cutoff seems to be 10%, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 8-12% given certain events in the future we haven't accounted for. This probably hurts Trump more than Kamala, so I'm half in agreement and half not. This is Trump actual key he must grab to assure victory: Bringing RFK out of the race and giving him political power. If RFK leaves and endorses Trump there is zero doubt in my mind he wins the election. If Trump doesn't pursue this or achieve this I'll be extremely upset.
Key Five: The Economy is in recession. You have 3 in 5 voters, using your own stats, saying it's a recession, when our mass propagandized population is constantly being told there isn't one and the economy is great. This is why I don't like this pundit brain mindset, where you have a strictly defined term that ends at a cutoff based on things like, "ThE yIiElD CuRvE." Reality is, the economy is ass, and that means, "recession," for the common man. You're just wrong on this one. Key goes to Trump
Key six: Should not go Tentatively for Harris. Should go tentatively for trump. This isn't one I can argue in the same way to five. I'll just say the Covid lockdowns don't give accuracy to this statement. I'd disregard this key altogether.
Key Seven: Wrong again. None of these policies are drastic changes. This isn't New Deal era stuff. It hasn't and won't be, "seen," for years to come. The CHIPS act? What's that? That's how your, "voter," responds to such claims. If it ain't on their W2's, they don't care, and they don't know about it. Nobody that is going to change the outcome of the election cares about these policies because they don't see them.
Key Nine: No major scandal? And you brought up Hunter Biden's laptop? Get the hell off twitter. The Major scandal is that we have a dementia patient for a president that the media and the current presidential nominee are on record defending and denying. What more of a scandal do you want? That one of the most prominent democrats was floating impeaching the leader of it's party using the 25th amendment? Is that not a scandal? Sure, the average voter doesn't see these things, but the average voter doesn't need Pelosi to tell them what dementia looks like when they saw it on national Television...
Key Ten: This is a tentative key for Donald Trump. Biden's foriegn policy has been horrendous. He's riding the fence and in doing so alienates the Israel supporters and detractors. He supports Ukraine and the wars going terribly. People don't need stats to know this. They know a war with a larger power lasting so long with no, "victory," means it's not going well. The simple mass can understand something quite profound and detailed just because this is a war based nation and they know what, "extended war," with a smaller power means: Everyone loses.
Key Thirteen: He became a national hero after surviving the assassination attempt. You pundit brain weirdo's seem to think the common folk are defined by CNN and Twitter. They aren't. Just because it's not in the news doesn't mean people aren't talking about it. It doesn't mean people aren't thinking about it. That doesn't just, "disappear," because it's not on your terminally online twitter feed or owned mass media. WW3 could start tomorrow and something new would be on your damn feed in a week; doesn't mean anything. Just means, "what's happening now," not, "what happens matters." That's it's only use value, but you all seem to misplace that for, "what happened before doesn't matter."
The rest is just dissecting stats and a myriad of other factors. I don't blame you; it's the only way you can engage with a people when you're so far away. At the same time, the real underlying current I took from this is if I were to watch, "vaush," or some other breadtuber on the left wing: Moronic support for, "the party," over actualizing a vision of your own.
Ironically, you get caught up in this tunnel vision of what will, "win," rather than what, "winning," looks like or the shape it takes. Trump did make us sick of winning, because winning didn't bring the victory we wanted.
This is our problem with the dual party duopoly: If you support your guy to win, it turns into a nothing fest following political jargon. If I go to deep with this I'll ramble for far too long so I'll leave it at that. Conclusion is that we need to use one of the two major parties and develop a dual power structure within it, then split off given opportunity. Trump could do this, he just doesn't have that vision or will, but if he can, someone else can.
Third parties lose in the US system. Everyone who's ever tried to break free and form one found out the hard way. The "government by donor" model of two different groups of rich Jews will not change until the wheels are completely off, and it will not be a deliberate reconstructive process. It'll take a major fracturing of systems.
Don't care about what hasn't worked before. Don't care if it's unlikely. Don't care if it requires a broken system. Don't care if you don't believe in it.
That's besides the fact that loss early on would be expected. That's the POINT actually...
I don't need your armchair analysis and weak willed defeatism. Nobody does. Not even you
In your mid-witted way of looking back into the past to predict the future, you've somehow determined that the past must be the future. Thus you relinquish the ability to shape which hasn't happened because of what has happened.
You're too simple to realize that's the whole point... funny, but I'm not going to explain to it to you. That's counter productive. If you say something of value I'll change my mind
This is an incredible piece Keith Woods. It feels hopeless but it’s completely the fault of Trump and the fools around him
Thank you
Don’t be demoralized. Get involved instead. Bring others along with you.
I think this group represents the RINOs in Maryland…
I agree Trump doesn't stand a chance in this election, but for different reasons. On votes cast and electoral votes won Trump will highly likely win as he did in 2020, but lose on votes counted. The grift is already obvious. Crucial swing states announcing their counts will take many days. Massive mail out of voting papers and unmonitored drop boxes still in order in most states. etc etc.
The Trump lawfare and then assassination attempt clearly indicate that globohomo is going all out on this one. And most of all they want another J6, a redneck rebellion. And what better way to get it than to perpetrate a really outrageously blatant election rig - a landslide for Kamala, probably the most unpopular person ever to run, and likely to make a poor impression in the debates.
There are some good points in this article, but it is completely bizarre in that it ignores the two biggest factors -- the election rigging - and how far globohomo will be prepared to go. Basically it reads like something one would find in Politico or the NYT - makes one want to puke. (Oh, and the article takes the US election polling seriously - for gods sake who do you think owns the pollsters-- do you also take Big Pharma's drug trial reported results seriously?)
I'm not sure I agree with the 'key' analysis. Biden giving to rust-belt states is not a message anyone has either heard or feels. Has the author been to any rust-belt cities? I live there. There's no re-invigoration. What I would have preferred is an analysis of what they have done to perfect the steal, the grift and the (lack of) republican support, the weird strategy of Trump advisors and whether or not he thinks Trump has been purchased/infiltrated... gasp....or not.
my thoughts exactly. OP's downfall, just like the pollsters, is relying too heavily on numbers, statistics, maps, etc to make conclusions - without any real experience "on the ground".
it was bad before, but it's like... REALLY bad now. i don't care what the numbers show or what these journos say - i've witnessed easily a dozen of my neighbors go through evictions and foreclosures. my entire street is essentially all new faces, and none of them are white. how are THESE people affording to live where the whites previously could not? that's anyone's guess, but it's pretty clear there's a lot of social handouts going on for them, but not for us.
The OP is one of those DC capitol political analysis who’s struggling to land himself a job and he blames the MAGA folks who he fails to compete against because he’s not one of them
> I agree Trump doesn't stand a chance in this election, but for different reasons. On votes cast and electoral votes won Trump will highly likely win as he did in 2020, but lose on votes counted.
It'll be harder to get away with that much fraud without Big Tech backing them up. However, they may try anyway.
I agree the OP is just cringe.
I agree with both of you on the rigging. But the rigging needs to be SOLD IN. It couldn't be sold in under Biden this time around. It would have been ludicrous and extremely dangerous for the deep state to attempt it with such a flawed candidate. They can sell it in now very easily with Kamala.
Keith's analysis is important because Trump efforts to triangulate into a centre ground versus Kamala are doomed to fail and only strengthen the concocted media narrative around her. He must energise his actual base - Whites - and attack her on immigration, Leftism, woke and the nation basically falling apart. He has to undermine the Deep State narrative that she is the natural, progressive, safe pair of hands choice. He needs to make her the perverse, dangerous choice. Going on about bloody gas prices and inflation isn't going to do that job.
Was the 2020 election not stolen ?
Good post. All globohomo has to do is keep the election close — voter fraud, especially ballot harvesting, will take it the rest of the way (although it seems you consciously avoided that aspect of the analysis). The arrogance of some on the right that Trump is “definitely” going to win is misguided and a bad sign. I actually like to use extreme emotions on any side as a counter-signal; everyone was sure Hillary would win in 2016, Dementia Joe was deeply unpopular in 2020, etc.
This should be a wake-up call for the Narcissistic Orange Clown...
The “definitely” has definitely died down.
The things I would do for this man if he just,
1) Banned immigration
2) Told Israelis to get completely fucked, bonus points for nuking tel aviv
💯% same here! If he banned legal and illegal immigration while telling the Israelis to fuck themselves, and decided to become a dictator, everyone would welcome it with open arms.
Excellent article, Keith. A while back I wrote an open letter to Trump, and I called him out on turning his back on the White working class:
https://morgthorak.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fat-orange-retard
It appears that he is poised to make the same stupid mistake by chasing black votes again. How difficult would it be for him to do a get out the vote effort for poor and working class Whites? How stupid to leave all of those votes on the table yet again.
I had hoped that with Kushner supposedly out of the picture that Trump would be smart enough to run a campaign that recognized who its base was and then targeted those people to come out and vote. Maybe it wasn't just Kushner that was the problem in 2020?
Well, if he goes down in flames again because he ignored White poor and working class people, then I hope he spends the rest of his life raging that he lost to an idiot like Kamala Harris. 🙄
BTW, your comments about his speech were also dead-on. I lasted about 15 minutes and I had to turn it off. Nobody gives a crap about "unity," least of all the Democrats.
Trump is bought and paid for by the Jews.
Aren't they all? Our UK lot too.
And our police and our media.
lol!! You are beyond stupid.
When did Trump ever have the backs of the White working class? He lost over 200,000 manufacturing jobs during his presidency (while Biden has created 800,000 manufacturing jobs), all while handing tax cuts to the rich. Maybe you've confused him with the character he plays on stage? Eating fast food and being barely able to read may endear him to many working class Whites but the guy is an east coast elite born into riches. He spent his entire adult life stiffing contractors and pissing on the little guy.
Literal bullshit. Americans have lost 2 million jobs since 2021, while immigrants have gained 1.2 million. Youre so deep in the koolaid bro look at the real data
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/12/native-and-immigrant-employment-during-the-pandemic/
The Trump campaign team targets all sorts of poor white votes. They even try to get the Amish and church going people and gun show going people to get out to vote. Seriously you should get involved in Trump Force 47 before you make that comment. Yes, Trump is making more appeal to black and Hispanic recently, but that doesn’t mean his campaign ignores the poor white working class
"Trump will likely lose the debates with Harris. Although he had some great moments against Hillary, polling on undecided voters showed they thought he lost every exchange. Harris performed reasonably well against Mike Pence in 2020, and Trump is not the man he was in 2016 or even 2020."
Harris is a walking disaster in front of a camera.
We'll see. I think she will do well in the debates.
The bar for her will be so low that she'll just need to show up and not make too big of an ass out of herself to be perceived to win.
but Americans aren’t stupid
lol
I think there will be a media blitz to say she did well in the debates (as they did with Biden) but she has an extremely unlikable personality to a sizeable segment of the voter base, which has been her Achilles heel and why she couldn't get a nomination in an open primary.
You are grossly underestimating how dumb Harris is.
Good article, except Vance is most definitely not "thematically pro-White" on account of his Indian wife. But I agree with everything else, Trump needs to reach out to the disaffected Whites who elected him in 2016, but modern conservatives who buy into every single leftist premise are delusional enough to believe that they can win the votes of "Jamal and Enrique" (Susie Wiles, Trump's campaign manager said this) even though these demographics have historically voted 85% Democrat at each election, and that was with the Democrats nominating mostly-White men, now that a black woman is the nominee it may well be 95%, and a decisive victory amongst the TikTok-addled vote (young white women) can also be assured on this basis also.
I don't know why everyone is overlooking the fact that Vance has a dothead Indian wife. He has skin in the game with that group. I remember Trump calling out Jeb Bush back in 2016 that he was weak on immigration because his wife was a Mexican. Yeah Vance is our guy with a son named Vivek lol
He's a Morrowind fan you don't get it
😂
Donny needs to go ALL IN, balls deep, sunk to the nuts on the White vote. There are SO many disenfranchised Whites in this country that would welcome with open arms a true pro-White version of Trump. He’s so pathetically hellbent on courting the nog/mekky vote that he’s completely lost sight of the goldmine right under his nose. Trump must shut up about Israel for the time till the election and focus 100% on f’n WHITES!
He forgot about the very people, who would back him up no matter what he did. He's a pathetic neutered and cucked shabbo's goy. Yeah let's go hard on "illegal immigration" but open the flood gates to "legal immigration" from India/Asia. Just another way of continuing the Great Replacement.
The Republicans don’t want to win. For real. They do not want to win, even though the path to winning is right there.
The Democrats do want to win.
Look, this strategy has been available to Republicans for decades. Shutting down illegal immigration and seriously restricting legal immigration has been available to Republicans for decades.
The most Republicans have done is basically re-arrange chairs (tax cuts, regulatory changes, etc.).
They don’t want to win.
I would add to seriously restricting legal immigration only from Europe. We don't need any more hostile non-White groups coming in and setting up shop politically and financially here.
This.
Everyone talks about "illegal immigration," but the narrative should be centralized around immigration in general. The legal migrants are just as much, if not more, of a danger to society.
At least, at the BMV the guy will say, "You don't have a social security card, Pablo, I can't help you," and Pablo can't drive, legally.
But the person who came legally? They can most certainly get licensed and now you have millions of third world dirt road drivers on our roads who don't know what stop signs, right-of-way, four-way-stop, etc.. are for. American drivers are bad enough as it is, but we expect these people from deserts and jungles to respect road rules, if they even know them to begin with?
There will be a cascade of fatalities, and not from "migrant crime," but purely just roadway accidents. It's already happened, and is happening, and will get worse.
This was an enjoyable read. Well-written and informative.
Thanks!
Perfect. Nailed the math on those battleground rust states razor thin margins. I saw it coming in 2018 just on that.
Trump is doomed, He is in a party that would rather monetize losing to ransom the lefts agenda, not win to stop it.
Thomas777 just posted on X that anyone discussing a Trump loss right now is an idiot being swept along by media narratives.
"This idea that WEEKS OUT from ELECTION DAY - after an unprecedented DISASTEROUS debate performance by an incumbent - 9 DAYS after TRUMP was LEADING solidly in WI and MI, while TRUMP racks up INDICATOR after INDICATOR and collects a bottomless war chest and SILICON VALLEY endorses him, KAMALA HARRIS - a total NOBODY with optics so shitty (even for BIDEN ADMIN) it became a running joke that she's a HOLOGRAM - is going to SWEEP THE EC it literally insane.
Some of you legit cannot BREAK with Legacy media ANTI-REALITY. What I described above? That is NOT HOW THINGS WORK. Is a ''STEAL'' possible? SURE. Self defeating, but ABSOLUTELY possible.
But what I DESCRIBED above? That's legit on ORDER of claiming BIDEN > FDR/REAGAN/OBAMA/KENNEDY/IKE. That's NOT reality. That's NOT how electoral politics works. "
Then he references "predictable indicators" which seem to be what this entire article is about.
"There's certain factors, RELIABLY codable variables, predictable modeling indicators to MODERN political behavior of the body politic. Its not ''VOODOO'' or some chance game.
People don't seem to understand (esp the population of which you speak) this REALITY."
T777 can say what he wants, and he may be correct on balance, but Keith is certainly not an idiot. He lays out a clear, actionable strategy. He knows that important elites are paying attention. This article is a part of what effective propaganda looks like. Don’t let your meat loaf. Don’t sleep on Harris.
Harris most definitely can win, but that speaks to the stupidity of the voting masses, not the quality of the candidate. Also, Keith has some borderline idiotic remakes in this article, especially in the keys to elections portion. His takes on the economy and scandals are objective false and write like a mother jones article.
The economy isn't great, but grocery prices are fairly flat relative to two years ago, and the supply chain shortages of covid lockdowns and other nonsense are long in the past. I'm sure it's different for lower-income Americans, but in the White middle-class it's basically business as usual. Inflation in the long run is a given due to our persistent spending; people will eventually just get used to current prices. If Biden manages to secure a last-minute gas price decrease or a number of other things, it could go a long way for improving perceptions of the economy. Remember that truck drivers and others most heavily affected by the current economy are already deep in the GOP camp; Harris appealing to the self-employed would be equivalent to Trump appealing to Blacks.
I don’t know anyone who isn’t struggling hard right now—-rich people, poor people, middle class people. Everyone in my world is struggling.
Yes, I disagree with keith’s count as well, especially with regards to the economic keys. I count it as 7-6 or 6-7. But that’s hardly the point. Smart people are shitting on Keith here, but he’s actually engaging in a real analysis of the thing.
Nothing denotes a credible opinion like the generous use of ALLCAPS
I would probably take whatever this person said seriously if they didn't CAPITALIZE every OTHER word.
Capitalization can be used to demonstrate emphasis in lieu of emboldening/italicizing - but this is just too much. Opinion trashcanned.
From what I remember you're awful at predicting American politics. Look this election is going to be like the last two, 50/50 down the wire, won by 100,000 votes across 5 states. 2020 was barely lost and everything was stacked against the incumbent. The bigger problem then incompetence of the RNC is everyone in this comment section shitting their pants, the real trashy people of the right, who'd rather purity spiral and blackpill over doing the bare minimum like driving their friends to the polls.
I called the last two elections right so my record is pretty good so far
Where? Because I've never seen anything on it. All I've seen is you say Trump wouldn't be nominated again.
What have they done to deserve even the bare minimum from the largest demographic in the country and therefore the most important one for winning in November? "Reducing immigration will be great for blacks and hispanics!" No one appreciates feeling invisible, and the 2024 election results will reflect that, as they did in 2020.
Again just purity spiraling like a hysterical bitch. If you think Trumps rhetoric on immigration isn't at all an improvement from the open border policy of the Biden or even his own policy during 2020 than you're fucking retarded. Any white man with their testicles still intact should have the instinct to do at least something other than complain online for fucks sake.
Is it purity spiraling to ask that some of their rhetoric explicitly appeal to the largest demographic in the country? They're terrified to say "white people" and you're complacent, happy to drive your friends to the polls. Whose testicles aren't intact?
It's purity spiraling when you're actively looking for reasons to do nothing. If you think having Trump in over Kamala isn't a positive for whites then you're very stupid.
A man with intact testicle wouldn't put their hopes in a savoir. No one is coming to save you. Especially a shabbos goy.
You're missing the whole point. You'd rather sit on your ass and complain about Guatemalans filling up your neighborhood than actually do a single thing. You think you're so smart cherry picking what trump says? You're given the option of less or more immigration and you choose more. That's literally all I'm saying, I'm not saying he's our guy or voting is based or something.
Lmao at this guy, what a negger. "Daddy Trump and the RNC did nothing wrong, it's all you stupid lazy white trash peoples fault". Yeah bud, vote Republican, you fit right in
Didn't say that retard, but all you midwit blackpillers can do is criticize and look for excuses to do nothing.
Republican boomer confirmed ✔️
Bro literally forgot what he wrote 😂
No dumbass. I was referring to what Keith said in the article, which you obviosly didn't read, about the Republican party being filled with trashy people. I said the real trash are the midwits like you.
The republican party is filled with trashy people though. The Grindr app literally broke from too many active users in one place at the RNC in Milwaukee. You keep talking about excuses to “do nothing.” What do you want people to do exactly? You want them to show up to “stop the steal” again? Who’s not voting? Everybody is voting.
It took me all of 30 seconds to see this is obvious propaganda. It's pathetic you people can't detach yourself from MSM anti-reality, no wonder you guys only start preemptively capitulating only when the MSM starts its Kamala blitz. I'll just ask what the fuck do you guys expect to do? Half of you want to wait for a Hitler to appear to come save you or wait for the collapse. Here's some news, HITLER WILL NEVER COME TO SAVE YOU AND IN HUNDRED YEARS THE UNITED STATES WILL STILL BE HERE. All you people do is fucking complain and I'm sick of it. Do something go homestead like me, start a fucking family, go to church. I encourage people to engage politically because it's the only logical way to get out agenda in part or whole implemented.
Read the first few paragraphs, skimmed the rest. Saw a bunch of charts and graphs and shit. Let me clue you in on the real election analysis: they fixed the last election, they'll fix the next one. End of discussion.
But keep pretending that it's real, I get how soothing that must be to believe.
This is like the right wing version of an Amazon review written by a 60 year old
Globohomo prefers to keep the fixing within a certain range -- if there's a blowout in favor of Trump it becomes difficult to hide the degree of election theft. Trump is nowhere near the margins he needs to be for that.
2020 shows that is false. Globohomo also doesn't necessarily control the fixing, as much of it was done at the local level by people brain-washed by the media into thinking Trump was literally Hitler. They'll print as many boxes as needed to make sure Cheeto Hitler doesn't win.
Nah, it was coordinated from on high although some low level drones conducted the actual stuffing. Globohomo had to pause vote counting for four hours in critical swing states to figure out how much rigging needed to be done, and the media provided cover. One can simply remember the "burst water pipe" as one example. This website catalogued the fraud: https://archive.ph/HKHPI
Pausing the counting.
So effed up.
No one on high knows how to stuff a ballot box. They probably don't know how to work a self-checkout at the grocer, either.
"to figure out how much rigging needed to be done"
If the real elites were behind it, they would have already known how much fixing they needed to do. Things would have been organized long in advance, and wouldn't have been nearly the shit-show that it was. The only explanation for Biden even being the candidate is that the elites had made their peace with Trump winning, as they knew they could cockblock him in his second term at least as easily as they had the first.
Everyone seems to forget what happened in 2020. It's all charades and has always been that way. Even if the "elites" let Trump win, what makes anyone think he will do anything drastic and substantial? He's useless and has shown through his actions that he has never been our guy for years now.
I think most of us know this. But do you think the Deep State would have dared fix 2024 with a landslide for Dementia Joe? The reason he had to be got rid of was because he made selling that impossible.
Trump can't stop the rigging but he can make the Deep State afraid of attempting it if he can make Kamala look like an insane choice that would be an implausible victor. At the moment he's failing at that job. Keith is giving clues how to fix that.
It'll be harder to get away with fixing it without Big Tech backing them up.
However, how this plays out is very much up in the air.
im sure there was some rigging going on in 2020 but Trump had already lost a lot of his white voters by 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost legitimately but by a much closer margin than by how things ended up .
Keith you really need to check out shadow stats, all the official economic numbers are cooked here in the U.S. The economy is not doing well at all in the U.S. for ordinary people, wages are stagnant, and inflation is still very high by the real numbers. The cooked numbers throw out the cost of food and fuel, which is where the inflation is still very high by real numbers. Yes price of consumer electronics isn't inflating, is that news to anyone?
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
correct answer.
the idea that our economy is doing well, or even better than it was before, is laughable - and can only be said by someone living in an ivory tower themselves.
don't speak for the 'Rust Belt' if you don't live in it. things are VERY bad down here in the trenches, and on the ground. i'm seeing people losing jobs and homes, left and right, and even my own position isn't entirely secure. hanging on by a thread, barely.
For real Michigan guy here.
Ha! Who can afford to buy consumer electronics when you are paying for food and fuel, and you get low wages?
I get all mine used lol. Gadgets like phones lose 90 percent of their value after a couple of years.
Indeed, a wise move on your part, and I try to do the same. No need to own the newer stuff anyway. I don't use most of the features on my phone. I long ago stopped caring every time a new doodad was added.
Now with 10 redundant cameras and folds up like an oragami crane. Only 1800 dollars.
😂
I don't like this post. It reeks of pundit brain. You are an online entity after all so I don't know why I was expecting more going in...
Let's start with the keys, Mr. Ireland:
Key two: Biden did face a primary that was largely predetermined and put on the perephary. With the class based character of America and the Democratic party representing the managerial elites spirit and the globo-homo mass of minority consumers, a pre-ordained primary was offered as the illusion of choice. RFK ran independent due to it's rigged nature. You're also ignoring the fact that Joe Biden was quite LITERALLY replaced, dragged out kicking and screaming. He wasn't just challenged: He lost the nomination from the same elites that gave it to him, both back in 2020, and in 2024.
Key Four: There is a viable third party candidate, the likes we haven't seen since ross perot. RFK even polling like he is, that's a remarkable turn of events given modern politics. The cutoff seems to be 10%, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 8-12% given certain events in the future we haven't accounted for. This probably hurts Trump more than Kamala, so I'm half in agreement and half not. This is Trump actual key he must grab to assure victory: Bringing RFK out of the race and giving him political power. If RFK leaves and endorses Trump there is zero doubt in my mind he wins the election. If Trump doesn't pursue this or achieve this I'll be extremely upset.
Key Five: The Economy is in recession. You have 3 in 5 voters, using your own stats, saying it's a recession, when our mass propagandized population is constantly being told there isn't one and the economy is great. This is why I don't like this pundit brain mindset, where you have a strictly defined term that ends at a cutoff based on things like, "ThE yIiElD CuRvE." Reality is, the economy is ass, and that means, "recession," for the common man. You're just wrong on this one. Key goes to Trump
Key six: Should not go Tentatively for Harris. Should go tentatively for trump. This isn't one I can argue in the same way to five. I'll just say the Covid lockdowns don't give accuracy to this statement. I'd disregard this key altogether.
Key Seven: Wrong again. None of these policies are drastic changes. This isn't New Deal era stuff. It hasn't and won't be, "seen," for years to come. The CHIPS act? What's that? That's how your, "voter," responds to such claims. If it ain't on their W2's, they don't care, and they don't know about it. Nobody that is going to change the outcome of the election cares about these policies because they don't see them.
Key Nine: No major scandal? And you brought up Hunter Biden's laptop? Get the hell off twitter. The Major scandal is that we have a dementia patient for a president that the media and the current presidential nominee are on record defending and denying. What more of a scandal do you want? That one of the most prominent democrats was floating impeaching the leader of it's party using the 25th amendment? Is that not a scandal? Sure, the average voter doesn't see these things, but the average voter doesn't need Pelosi to tell them what dementia looks like when they saw it on national Television...
Key Ten: This is a tentative key for Donald Trump. Biden's foriegn policy has been horrendous. He's riding the fence and in doing so alienates the Israel supporters and detractors. He supports Ukraine and the wars going terribly. People don't need stats to know this. They know a war with a larger power lasting so long with no, "victory," means it's not going well. The simple mass can understand something quite profound and detailed just because this is a war based nation and they know what, "extended war," with a smaller power means: Everyone loses.
Key Thirteen: He became a national hero after surviving the assassination attempt. You pundit brain weirdo's seem to think the common folk are defined by CNN and Twitter. They aren't. Just because it's not in the news doesn't mean people aren't talking about it. It doesn't mean people aren't thinking about it. That doesn't just, "disappear," because it's not on your terminally online twitter feed or owned mass media. WW3 could start tomorrow and something new would be on your damn feed in a week; doesn't mean anything. Just means, "what's happening now," not, "what happens matters." That's it's only use value, but you all seem to misplace that for, "what happened before doesn't matter."
The rest is just dissecting stats and a myriad of other factors. I don't blame you; it's the only way you can engage with a people when you're so far away. At the same time, the real underlying current I took from this is if I were to watch, "vaush," or some other breadtuber on the left wing: Moronic support for, "the party," over actualizing a vision of your own.
Ironically, you get caught up in this tunnel vision of what will, "win," rather than what, "winning," looks like or the shape it takes. Trump did make us sick of winning, because winning didn't bring the victory we wanted.
This is our problem with the dual party duopoly: If you support your guy to win, it turns into a nothing fest following political jargon. If I go to deep with this I'll ramble for far too long so I'll leave it at that. Conclusion is that we need to use one of the two major parties and develop a dual power structure within it, then split off given opportunity. Trump could do this, he just doesn't have that vision or will, but if he can, someone else can.
well said, all of it.
Third parties lose in the US system. Everyone who's ever tried to break free and form one found out the hard way. The "government by donor" model of two different groups of rich Jews will not change until the wheels are completely off, and it will not be a deliberate reconstructive process. It'll take a major fracturing of systems.
Don't care about what hasn't worked before. Don't care if it's unlikely. Don't care if it requires a broken system. Don't care if you don't believe in it.
It's the only way victory is achieved.
A win that means something.
Have it your way. And have fun ever reaching 270 electoral votes ever again.
HaVe FuN rEaChInG 270 ElEcToRaL vOtEs
Boy don't you value your importance quite a bit.
Anyway, it starts in the senate.
That's besides the fact that loss early on would be expected. That's the POINT actually...
I don't need your armchair analysis and weak willed defeatism. Nobody does. Not even you
In your mid-witted way of looking back into the past to predict the future, you've somehow determined that the past must be the future. Thus you relinquish the ability to shape which hasn't happened because of what has happened.
SAD!
Have a look at how Ross Perot did, figure out which party he took votes from, then get back to me.
You're too simple to realize that's the whole point... funny, but I'm not going to explain to it to you. That's counter productive. If you say something of value I'll change my mind
Keep on keeping on friend.